The Arrival of Trophy Newspapers?

The Nieman Journalism Lab – a project of the Nieman Foundation at Harvard – describes its work as “an attempt to help journalism figure out its future in an Internet age.”   One of its contributors, news industry analyst Ken Doctor, recently posted an interesting article as part of a series of predictions for journalism in 2013.  You can find the original here: http://www.niemanlab.org/2012/12/the-arrival-of-trophy-newspapers/.

And, despite the Lab’s declaration that “we are fundamentally optimistic,” Mr. Doctor’s predictions are somewhat less than rosy.  “It’s enough to give even the bravest forecaster triskaidekaphobia trepidation,” he says.

Here are Ken Doctor’s top 10 predictions for 2013:

  • The half-life of metro newspaper publishers: Half what it was five years ago.
  • Two dozen: How many dailies follow The New York Times’ example and see their circulation revenue exceed their advertising revenue on an annual basis.
  • The arrival of trophy newspapers: Why take on a demanding and time-consuming mate when you can buy a newspaper for the cost of a mansion? With the entire stock of eight Tribune newspapers valued at a little more than a tenth of what Dow Jones sold for just five years ago, why not take home two?
  • The FCC’s cross-ownership debate does little more than make people angry: With scant evidence that allowing newspapers and TV stations to pool their assets — no increase in news, in public service or in survivability — the debate gets mired in abstract notions of “multiplatform.” True multiplatform, multimedia news production still rolls along on training wheels, much tougher to master than anyone had suspected.
  • 10x: The number of jobs open for “responsive designers.”
  • 5x: The number of Big Data tamers offering their services to publishers.
  • The Midtown Conference convenes: And like the Berlin Conference of 1884, global publishing interests divide up territories where they want to plant Internet news colonies, following the example of The Wall Street Journal in Germany and The New York Times in China and Brazil.
  • Last Man Standing goes into pre-production: Daniel Day-Lewis will take on his toughest role, playing Rupert Murdoch in the 2015 film — and given the age of his subject, he’ll have less time than usual to prepare for it.
  • Siri learns the question: Can I get my newspaper delivered today?
  • Bobblehead Brooks: News International’s Rebekah Brooks tries to shake off Scotland Yard’s charges of bribery.

If you have your own predictions for journalism in 2013, we would love to hear them!

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